Overview:

Joe Biden is very likely to defeat Donald Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. In 10,000 simulations of my polls-based model Biden won 9635 simulations (96.35%), Trump won 349 simulations (3.49%) and 16 simulations were tied (0.16%).

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Exhibit 1: Race Rating with Biden Win Probabilities. Ratings Legend: Solid >95%, Likely 80–95%, Lean 60–80%, Tilt <60%

Despite the most news-filled week in recent memory, the big picture of the 2020 US Presidential Election remains clear. Joe Biden is a strong favorite to deny President Donald Trump a second term. In 10,000 simulations of my polls-based model Biden won 9,039 simulations (90.39%), Trump won 914 (9.14%) and 47 (0.47%) were tied.

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Figure 1: Race Ratings/Biden Win Percentage by State. Ratings Legend: Solid >95%, Likely 75–95%, Leans 60–75%, Toss-up <60%


Overview

With 3 months to go, Joe Biden remains a heavy favorite to defeat President Donald Trump this November. In 10,000 simulations of my electoral model, Biden won 9,430 simulations (94.3%), Trump won 550 (5.5%) and 20 were tied (0.2%).

Drilling into the electoral map, Biden’s profound advantage is clear. Biden has 334 electoral votes that at least lean towards him including 240 electoral votes rated as solid. Trump has a mere 126 electoral votes that at least lean towards him including 87 rated as solid. 78 electoral votes rate as Tossups.

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Criteria for Ratings: Solid >95% Win Probability, Likely 75–95%, Lean 60–75%, Tossup <60%

Overview

Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to defeat Donald Trump this November based on the 10,000 simulated results of my US Presidential Election model. Biden won 94.56% of simulations (9456 total simulations), Trump won 5.28% (528 total simulations) while 0.16% were tied (16 total simulations). Below is a map of the Democratic win probability by state:

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Alex Reinthal

I’m a Kenyon & U Michigan alum who writes about analytics and elections. https://twitter.com/AlexReinthal

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