Despite the most news-filled week in recent memory, the big picture of the 2020 US Presidential Election remains clear. Joe Biden is a strong favorite to deny President Donald Trump a second term. In 10,000 simulations of my polls-based model Biden won 9,039 simulations (90.39%), Trump won 914 (9.14%) and 47 (0.47%) were tied.

Overview

With 3 months to go, Joe Biden remains a heavy favorite to defeat President Donald Trump this November. In 10,000 simulations of my electoral model, Biden won 9,430 simulations (94.3%), Trump won 550 (5.5%) and 20 were tied (0.2%).

Drilling into the electoral map, Biden’s profound advantage is clear. Biden has 334 electoral votes that at least lean towards him including 240 electoral votes rated as solid. Trump has a mere 126 electoral votes that at least lean towards him including 87 rated as solid. 78 electoral votes rate as Tossups.

Overview

Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to defeat Donald Trump this November based on the 10,000 simulated results of my US Presidential Election model. Biden won 94.56% of simulations (9456 total simulations), Trump won 5.28% (528 total simulations) while 0.16% were tied (16 total simulations). Below is a map of the Democratic win probability by state: